Smart People Get This Wrong Often.

In the spirit of guarded optimism.

I’ve been reading about two non-competing beverage co.'s that recently brought in high-profile CEOs. One over a year ago, and the other a few months. You know who they are.

Here’s what I can’t quite reconcile.

They have not cracked the code.

* There are a lot of smart people on this platform. Impressive backgrounds, real experience, meaningful accomplishments. People who should have good judgment. And yet, in both cases, leaders who have been in their roles for only a few months (though one over a year) are already being treated like they’ve cracked the code, even if one CEO is showing some early encouraging results. I see posts reiterating what CEO X said, and we seemingly accept it as an absolute truth.

These leaders have adjacent industry vs real industry experience.

* Adjacent experience is valuable, but these businesses have nuances you don’t fully appreciate until you’ve operated inside them (e.g., sales channels, distributors...). Those aren’t things you pick up quickly from the outside.

The same people who hired these leaders are likely the same people who hired their predecessors.

* Yet we are all to believe this time it’s different. Maybe it is, and I’m not saying it won’t work because I want them to succeed. My livelihood is dependent on one, if not both of these industries. What I’m questioning is how quickly smart people suspend disbelief.

A well-articulated strategy gets announced and suddenly it’s taken as directionally right as if saying it cleanly or often enough is the same as executing it well.

* It isn’t. Running businesses like these are messy. These are large companies and things likely move slow. It’s full of trade-offs that don’t show up in a press release or a LinkedIn post. And no one, no matter how capable, walks in and fully understands that in a few months. Transformation takes time. It feels like mostly just agreement, encouragement, and a kind of early conviction that hasn’t really been earned yet.

That’s the part I don’t get.

Because this isn’t about being negative or cynical. It’s about being honest about how hard these businesses are. Smart people should know the difference between a good narrative and a proven outcome. They should know that the same system that made the last decision is still in place for this one. They should know that strategy sounds great at the beginning of every tenure. They should know spreadsheets look great until you have to execute. So maybe instead of anointing, the better move is to wait a bit. Watch what actually changes. See what gets executed. See what results follow. That’s usually where the truth shows up.

I get why we want to believe it early. I just don’t think that’s the smart part.

BTW my favorite drink is an Iced Americano, extra ice, and when I’m socializing, Tequila, neat.